Archive for August, 2005

Watch these DVDs and ye shall be saved

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

This week’s WTF article comes courtesy of the Boston Globe. It’s a tale of how one woman’s spiritual and emotional confusion led her to the conclusion that Cinema Saves.

Perusing one such guru’s website, she stumbled onto what has become her gospel: the Spiritual Cinema Circle. For $21 a month, the circle rents subscribers films stressing human relationships and capabilities — Netflix for the soul, if you will.

The movies ”have been another blessing in my life,” says Escalera, who runs a language translator’s business helping business and government bodies. This month’s four selections included ”Butterfly Woman,” a Danish short about a journalist who had a mid-life epiphany about the emptiness of her high-powered career. Says Escalera, ”Exactly what happens in that movie happened to me.”

The organization is co-founded by one Steven Simon, whose strong sense of cinematic spirituality has brought us films like “What Dreams May Come” and… uh… “Smokey and the Bandit.” Also, the films available through the “circle” tend to be independent productions, feature-length documentaries, and short movies along with the some of the fringe Hollywood titles. I’m not signing up any time soon, but hey, different strokes for different folks I guess.

Read the full craziness here.

Blockbuster CEO promises fourth quarter profits

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

And is quick to point the blame of their 2nd quarter loss at Hollywood. Well, they gotta blame something, and they can’t blame rising oil prices, unless maybe people are just not willing to spend the gas money to drive to the store? Of course the torrent of crap coming out of Hollywood isn’t to blame for Blockbuster’s troubles. DVDs are bigger than ever and still growing (even if growth is slowing down). People just aren’t getting their movies from Blockbuster. More and more they’re going online to places like Netflix and Amazon, or heading to big box stores like Wal-Mart to buy the damn things on the cheap instead of renting.

Plus, as this crazy Welsh website points out…

“Quality rarely has anything to do with how popular it is. Just look at 1997. It was an awful year.

“We had The Lost World: Jurassic Park and Batman and Robin but I don’t remember Blockbuster complaining about the quality of films back then.”

Blockbuster also mentioned that they wouldn’t be spending any money on new [unprofitable] business ventures or advertisements, so their overall profit would increase. This lack of spending may indeed move them into the black again, but it will certainly do nothing to buttress their floundering sales or failing business model.

But hey, good luck with that.

You can read more on Blockbuster’s last ditch efforts here.

I’m back!

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

Hey, everyone. I’m back from camping and ready to get back to the blogging. It was nice being away from computers, TVs, cell phones, DVDs and all of that for a week, but it is great to be back in the civilized world once again.

Also, I am pleased to report, nobody I know was eaten by a bear or struck by lightning, although my girlfriend did catch a nasty cold. But, hey, that’s why they invented Sudafed.

Look here for accelerated updates today and for the rest of the week. I gotta play catch up.

I’m going camping.

Friday, August 12th, 2005

Hey everyone, just wanted to give all of you some notice that I’m going camping for a week, so if you notice that I’m not posting for the next 10 days or so, that’ll be the reason. You know, I wouldn’t want you to worry that I’m dead or dismembered or that I forgot about the blog or something…

Oh, who am I kidding, nobody reads this.

But yeah, you can expect a TON of posts when I get back next monday, 10 days worth to be precise. Posts that will amaze you. Posts that may even SHOCK or OFFEND you. So stay tuned.

I was going to put up a best-of reel or something to entertain you while I was gone, but then I realized:

A) All my posts are great, so why bother?
B) I’m not really sure how to make a link…
C) All my posts suck ass, so why bother?
D) Corn chowder is delicious.
E) All of the above.
F) C and D only.

Leave your answer in the comments.

Heart,
Double-oh-Steven

TiVo Tests Internet Download Service

Friday, August 12th, 2005

Hello all. News of a TiVo VOD system comes from San Fransisco. So far it’s just an experiment with the International Film Channel, but, you know, baby steps. When viewed in context with the rest of what’s been going on for the past few months, a bigger picture comes into focus.

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Add TiVo Inc. to the list of companies trying to wed the Internet to television. The digital recording company is preparing to enable customers to download TV shows to their set-top boxes via the Internet - even before the shows air on TV. TiVo has struck a deal with the Independent Film Channel to transmit several of the cable channel’s shows through a broadband connection as part of a trial program. A group of customers were asked to take part in the test and those who chose to participate will begin receiving the IFC shows next week, said TiVo spokesman Elliot Sloane.

Content on demand has long been a holy grail for Internet and cable companies as they try to create the next generation of television. No one yet has found a way to overcome key technological hurdles, such as finding a speedy way to pump two-hour movies through broadband, or convince Hollywood that it can profit from Internet broadcasts.

Still, broadband connections are picking up speed, and are moving closer to becoming a reliable delivery method for broadcast-quality video. Should the day come that video is downloaded at the touch of a button, some of the stakeholders in the sector foresee a vast video universe of endless variety.

For TiVo, the news comes a day after the company saw its stock fall more than 6 percent following a media report that DirecTV was planning to stop marketing the service to its 14 million customers. News Corp. owned DirecTV is planning to throw support behind a competing digital recording company. About 70 percent of TiVo’s 3.3 million users have come from its deal with DirecTV.

TiVo shares were up 3 cents at $5.65 in midday trading Friday on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

More info on TiVo and Video on Demand here.

Reruns a thing of the past?

Friday, August 12th, 2005

There’s an interesting phenomenon occurring on TV this summer, and no, I’m not talking about X-files reruns. I’m talking about reruns in general and how there seem to be less and less of them. This strange occurrence, what I’m calling “The Rewind Effect,” has been well documented in articles such as this one from Journal Now, this one from The Evansville Courier, and on blogs like this one.

What’s the deal? Less summer re-runs, fewer people watching the summer re-runs that are on, and more new summer shows. It seems like the rerun is being phased out by the major networks. Here’s why, flowchart-style.

First: Writers go on strike leading to the emergence of cheap, easy to produce, fast to produce “reality television” like Survivor.

Second: Cheap, easy to produce reality TV catches on big time. Networks love them because they don’t have to pay writers or actors. Viewers love them because they’re stupid. They nab high ratings but the rerun potential for them is practically nil.

Third: The DVD boom makes basically every show worth watching available in full on DVD. Television “reruns” on DVD outsell motion pictures pound for pound in 2005.

Fourth: DVR boxes such as TiVo’s and Comcasts’s make it easy to record shows you want to see again or shows you may have missed and want to catch later. This, in theory, obsoletes the rerun.

Fifth: Smelling opportunity (and lacking Network shows to syndicate thanks to the reality experiment), cable networks debut new shows for the summer season, such as TNT’s “The Closer,” making network reruns even less attractive.

Sixth: Remember those cheap, easy to produce, quick to produce, writerless, actorless “reality” shows? Well, it’s easy to make about 50 of them and clog up the airwaves with crap people will watch, so why not? It’s only slightly more expensive then showing reruns, and people actually have reason to tune in (see step 2).

That brings us to our current phase. But what effect, if any, will the rewind effect have on the future of the networks? I’m predicting a negative. Reruns may have less intrinsic value all of a sudden, but in the long term they’re still very worthy TV staples. Here’s why, list-style:

1) They promote the new season of the show itself. Reruns prolong the life of a TV show.

2) If you replace more and more shows with “reality TV,” which has no rerun value and practically no DVD resale value, and then don’t rerun your biggest scripted shows, those big shows lose a lot of their financial punch. You can’t sell as much advertising space on DVDs , and if people are only watching them via their DVR boxes the ads just get skipped. This is one of the biggest economic ripples caused by the rewind effect.

3) Networks are forgetting that they make a lot of their money by selling the syndication rights of their shows, allowing cable networks to rerun their biggest hits (Seinfeld? Simpsons? Friends? SNL anyone?). As fewer and fewer of their new shows become worthy of syndication, the value of the networks will drop. Basically, the more of their shows rerunning on cable (vs. cable producing more hit shows like The Closer from which the networks see none of the returns), the better. They’re giving up one of their biggest advantages here.

The bottom line is, maybe the major networks need a “reality” check, before they start wondering what happened to their paycheck.

FACE!

TiVo, Comcast, DVR, VOD, and NFLX

Wednesday, August 10th, 2005

Analysis by a savvy poster at The Motley Fool. It’s the post of the day!

GOOD: Tivo has a lot of patents on key features. This means they should be able to maintain unique offerings. It also means the potential to go after competitors and get settlements.

NOT SO GOOD: Unfortunately such lawsuits can be expensive and there are no guarantees. It’s also difficult to sell people on the benefits Tivo has over other DVRs.

GOOD: Netflix still has majority market share on the mailorder DVD rental market. But eventually broadband to the home will become common and we won’t need the DVDs anymore. Netflix has this on their mind and has signed a deal with Tivo to work together on such video distribution ideas. Unlike ReplayTV, Tivo has successfully offered this new capability while not getting into legal trouble over it. They even managed to get away with transferring recorded video to a laptop for portable viewing.

BAD: Although video on demand is coming, it is still dependent on having high speed connections to everyones house. There are still plenty of areas with no broadband access available, much less broadband installed. And not all of those broadband offerings will be fast enough. As it gets closer, expect the MPAA to become concerned about content control, and some studios will be hesitant to license their movies for distribution in this manner. The same was true of DVD though, there are plenty of titles now. Some of that will depend on how the DVD-HD vs BluRay fight goes. If the industry doesn’t pick one standard, people won’t adopt either one and it could potentially fail as DVD-Audio and SACD did for the same reason. If people don’t adopt it, there will be that much more interest in video on demand. And SBC has installed Fiber to the house in a nearby city here in Texas, and with unbelievable speeds available it would be awesome if they roll it out everywhere.

GOOD: Peanut butter and Jelly Sandwich is a delicious treat and an easy snack to make, packed with vital nutrients that kids love.

BAD: Peanut butter sticks to the roof of your mouth.

Solution: Milk.

Anyway, the future looks very promising. I know I’ll be the first to sign up for the Netflix/VOD/DVR Comcast box. The on demand feature that Comcast has now is great, but if you add the power of true VOD, that would be incredable. I’d aprecaite some of those super-fast fiber lines too… are you listning Comcast?

HA! Eat it, Blockbuster!

Tuesday, August 9th, 2005

UPDATE 2-Blockbuster posts loss, drops forecast

CHICAGO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Movie rental chain Blockbuster Inc. (BBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday posted a quarterly loss that was more than double what analysts expected as lackluster new video releases failed to attract consumers.

The company also said it was no longer on track to meet its 2005 financial forecast.

Also Tuesday, Blockbuster said it was raising the monthly fee for its online service. The price of a three-movie plan will rise to $17.99 from $14.99 as of Aug. 19, bringing it in line with Netflix Inc.’s (NFLX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) price.

HA! I don’t think there’s much more to say about it. (Click here for the whole article)

(Click here for the elusive Update 3)

(Click here for Marketwatch’s take)

And I don’t mean to tell you “I told you so,” but…

See also: I told you so, I told you so, and I told you so.

Amazon sets sights on American DVD rentals

Monday, August 8th, 2005

Thanks to the expert reporting of Ms. Holly J. Wagner of Wired News for this one.

Amazon.com job listings for software engineers raise the specter of the internet retail giant entering the online DVD rental market in the United States, challenging companies like Netflix and Blockbuster.

Advertising for positions based at the company’s Seattle headquarters, the listings seek engineers to help in “building systems and algorithms that must move inventory between our fulfillment centers and our customers in a way that gives customers exactly what they want, when they want it.” The postings indicate they are specifically for an online DVD rental service.

That’s big news for folks in America, and bigger news for Reed Hastings and the Netflix crew. Amazon has many loyal customers who would probably be willing to try out their rental service if the price was right and the service was up to Amazon’s usually high standards. (If the job listing is an indication, it seems it will be.)

However, Netflix is positioned fiercely in the American market. They’ve already taken down the biggest corporation in the world, Walmart, and have sufficiently whipped rental giant Blockbuster into submission.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has some ideas of his own, however, at just how Netflix could be taken down a peg. Gang up on ‘em.

“Rather than beat themselves up trying to compete for no profit, they can pick up $1.50 a customer from Blockbuster at no cost,” Pachter said. Pachter said if a combined Amazon/Blockbuster service grew to the same size as Netflix, that could mean a $4.8 million monthly royalty for Amazon.

“Customers think they’re signing up with internet hero Amazon instead of Luddite Blockbuster,” added Pachter. “Both Amazon and Blockbuster win.”

And Netflix loses.

As always, Hastings isn’t worried.

“As time goes by and our competitive position strengthens, Amazon’s direct entry into the market seems both less formidable and less likely,” Hastings said. “With our volume of 1 million shipments per day, we can make money at a price point that no entrant can.”

It’s the fuuuuture….

Monday, August 8th, 2005

Hi everybody, Double-oh Steven here. It’s time again for everybody’s favorite feature on Kiosk.net, something I like to call This Week in DVR. So let’s just flip on our patented Media Box and see what comes up, shall we…?

Beep boo boo bee beep boo beep boo, Beep boo boo bee beep boo beep boo. Beep. Boop. Boop.

Portents of the future!

From a most unlikely source: TiVo’s privacy policy? That’s right, TiVo has hinted at certain future offerings in it’s user privacy policy, particularly pertaining to the access of new content through your TiVo box. The DVR company notified their customers of the update through a mass email earlier this month.

“The updates (to the privacy policy) pertain primarily to the addition of new functionality that will enable TiVo subscribers to download content to their series 2 DVR.”

The company is not announcing any partnerships just now, but the policy update reflects that in the near future TiVo boxes will do a lot more. According to ZDNet

“Subscribers who connect their TiVo Series 2 box to their home network should expect some ridiculously cool things to come down the pipeline this fall,” the newsletter said. Among those features are the ability to stream digital music from a computer to a home entertainment system, play games, podcast and schedule programming via TiVo’s Web site.

That’s all cool, but the buzz on everyone’s brain is Netflix. Will TiVo be teaming up with the DVD rental giant to offer movie content on demand via a DVR box connection? Official statements have been elusive at best, but according to Murray Arenson, a senior analyst at Ferris Baker Watts, such claims are “going in the right direction.”

I read about this on ZDNet, and so should you.