There’s an interesting phenomenon occurring on TV this summer, and no, I’m not talking about X-files reruns. I’m talking about reruns in general and how there seem to be less and less of them. This strange occurrence, what I’m calling “The Rewind Effect,” has been well documented in articles such as this one from Journal Now, this one from The Evansville Courier, and on blogs like this one.
What’s the deal? Less summer re-runs, fewer people watching the summer re-runs that are on, and more new summer shows. It seems like the rerun is being phased out by the major networks. Here’s why, flowchart-style.
First: Writers go on strike leading to the emergence of cheap, easy to produce, fast to produce “reality television” like Survivor.
Second: Cheap, easy to produce reality TV catches on big time. Networks love them because they don’t have to pay writers or actors. Viewers love them because they’re stupid. They nab high ratings but the rerun potential for them is practically nil.
Third: The DVD boom makes basically every show worth watching available in full on DVD. Television “reruns” on DVD outsell motion pictures pound for pound in 2005.
Fourth: DVR boxes such as TiVo’s and Comcasts’s make it easy to record shows you want to see again or shows you may have missed and want to catch later. This, in theory, obsoletes the rerun.
Fifth: Smelling opportunity (and lacking Network shows to syndicate thanks to the reality experiment), cable networks debut new shows for the summer season, such as TNT’s “The Closer,” making network reruns even less attractive.
Sixth: Remember those cheap, easy to produce, quick to produce, writerless, actorless “reality” shows? Well, it’s easy to make about 50 of them and clog up the airwaves with crap people will watch, so why not? It’s only slightly more expensive then showing reruns, and people actually have reason to tune in (see step 2).
That brings us to our current phase. But what effect, if any, will the rewind effect have on the future of the networks? I’m predicting a negative. Reruns may have less intrinsic value all of a sudden, but in the long term they’re still very worthy TV staples. Here’s why, list-style:
1) They promote the new season of the show itself. Reruns prolong the life of a TV show.
2) If you replace more and more shows with “reality TV,” which has no rerun value and practically no DVD resale value, and then don’t rerun your biggest scripted shows, those big shows lose a lot of their financial punch. You can’t sell as much advertising space on DVDs , and if people are only watching them via their DVR boxes the ads just get skipped. This is one of the biggest economic ripples caused by the rewind effect.
3) Networks are forgetting that they make a lot of their money by selling the syndication rights of their shows, allowing cable networks to rerun their biggest hits (Seinfeld? Simpsons? Friends? SNL anyone?). As fewer and fewer of their new shows become worthy of syndication, the value of the networks will drop. Basically, the more of their shows rerunning on cable (vs. cable producing more hit shows like The Closer from which the networks see none of the returns), the better. They’re giving up one of their biggest advantages here.
The bottom line is, maybe the major networks need a “reality” check, before they start wondering what happened to their paycheck.
FACE!